Oscar Predictions 2010
Last year I correctly predicted 5 out of the top 6 categories. However, I let emotion get in the way of rational thinking and predicted Benjamin Button over Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture. Looking back that was foolish as the Academy formula is simple: you go to the IMDb vote break down pages for the nominees and look at the Males Aged 45+ section - these are your Acadamy voting elite. Had I done this last year I would have seen this:

Slumdog Millionaire (8.0), Frost/Nixon (7.9), The Reader (7.9), Milk (7.7), and Benjamin Button (7.5).

The formula is good for about eight years, at which point the wave of hype wears off and the voting tends to balance towards historical significance. It's also important to note that adjustments need to be made for Hollywood nostalgia picks and films set in their favourite location: LA.

So, as with last year I have endeavoured to see all nominees in these top six categories before the awards are presented. I’ve seen all ten Best Picture nominees but missed out on two films in the supporting categories this year.

Update: 3 out of 6, but couldn't be happier to see The Hurt Locker take a total of six.


Best Picture
Avatar PREDICT
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker DESERVES WON
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Double the usual nominees this year - I’m not in favour of this as it’s no longer much of "an honor just to be nominated". Using my formula above, it seems Avatar is the clear winner - I would not have it in my top ten for the year, but good on James for coming back big. It’s unfortunate for Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker, either of these might have won against last year’s competition.


Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) WON
George Clooney (Up in the Air) DESERVES
Colin Firth ( A Single Man) PREDICT
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

This could go a number of ways. Jeff Bridges is a popular choice and could take it. Clooney won in 2006 for his role in Syriana - I thought he was so well suited to his role in Up in the Air that I’m inclined to say he deserves to win here. I haven’t seen A Single Man but it seems Colin Firth has been dominating this category in other awards shows so I’ll play the percentages here.


Best Actress
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) WON
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious) DESERVES
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) PREDICT

Of course I adored Carey Mulligan in An Education, but Gabourey Sidibe was the real stand out this year for her role in Precious. I would be the injustice of the year if Meryl Streep took it out, but that’s how I see the Acadamy voting. Helen Mirren's performance in The Last Stations is one I missed.


Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon (Invictus)
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) PREDICT DESERVES WON

It’s got to be Christoph Waltz. Stanley Tucci was great in The Lovely Bones - some would say the only redeeming element. Matt Damon was surprisingly good in Invictus (but didn’t really do much) and Woody Harrelson was outstanding for at least half of The Messenger, but Christoph Waltz will easily take this out.


Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz (Nine)
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
Mo’Nique (Precious) PREDICT DESERVES WON

The Up in the Air gals were superb, Vera Farmiga being the stand out of the two, but the Academy will look no further then Mo’Nique. Maggie Gyllenhaal wasn’t doing a whole lot of acting in Crazy Heart and Penelope had her turn last year.


Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) DESERVES PREDICT WON
James Cameron (Dances with Smurfs)
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

This will come down to Cameron and Bigelow. I have a feeling the Academy still don’t "get" Tarantino, but he should still be a strong contender. Kathryn Bigelow has done this the hard way and fully deserves all the plaudits for her work here.


See also: The 2009 Film Year in Review
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009) This little piece of Oscar bait captures the gritty social landscape of ’80s Harlem and drags you through the lowest depths of human experience. It’s tough viewing but the tone it’s trying to promote is positive. Aside from strong performances across the board, there are imaginitive montages and even occasional moments of comic relief - there is also questionable use of narration, though it is in keeping with the creative style of the film. Essential
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Crazy Heart (2009) The real surpise with this film is that some people seem surprised to discover Jeff Bridges can act. While this is certainly is greatest dramatic role, he has been nominated for an Oscar four times prior to this film. However, he is truely outstanding here, and if the Academy set up a category for ‘charming looks’ then Maggie Gyllenhaal would be a front runner for her support role here also. Unfortunately this washed-up-country-singer performance wont attact the audiences - if only they had thought to include a secret heartthrob cameo... Recommended
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An Education (2009) The only reason you really need to see this 1960s suburban London coming-of-age tale is for the unforgettable performance by newcomer Carey Mulligan. If that’s not enough then may I present exhibit B: Alfred Molina’s role as a concerned father is hysterically funny. There’s no surprise it took out the BAFTA for best British Film. It’s complex and intellegent and funny and bittersweet and OMG Sally Hawkins couldn’t have found a better way follow up her role in Happy-Go-Lucky. Essential
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Stanley Kubrick’s Boxes (2008) As a huge Kubrick fan I was intrigued by the prospect of a documentary that promised to reveal further insight into his genius. However in this rather unsatisfying exposé we learn little more than the fact that Stanley had a staggering amount of boxes filled mostly with location shots for films (including some which never eventuated). Yes, we see more evidence of his infamous attention to detail, but with the incredible access this filmmaker had to these files I had far higher expectations. Average
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The Informant (2009) “The gluconate guy, he’s out of a job.” - I’m not sure that Steven Soderbergh was aiming for a laugh-out-loud film, but Matt Damon’s utterance earned a rare one from me (not a spoiler - it’s in the trailer). I liked that we have a more realist portrayal of corporate whistleblowing - it’s dull and the humour is in the mundane detail. Unfortunately there was not enough of the kitschy quirky detail to last the distance. Average
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"It is a rich mix of ideas which strike and collide to create poetic moments that speak, despite the remote location, to all of us today. With fantastic charismatic performances all around, including a striking moustache on the director."
New Zealand filmmaker Taika Waititi was awarded the Grand Prix, Best Feature Film (Generation Section) at the Berlin Film Festival. He was likely overheard remarking "They like me, they really like me", or something similar after the ceremony.

Be sure to check out the trailer for Boy over at Flicks.
The Young Victoria (2009) I was never going to have a lot of enthusiam for a film that retold the early days of Queen Victoria’s rule - but I still found the events engrossing, even if the passion was lacking. It’s as beautifully made as you would expect - the costumes and sets are stunning. Interesting sidenote, this is the followup film from director Jean-Marc Vallée’s cult favourite C.R.A.Z.Y in 2005. Average
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The Lovely Bones (2009) If this film, about the murder of a young girl, had been made with the sincerity and tone of last year’s acclaimed ‘Changeling’, instead of Peter Jackson’s attempt to target the Twilight crowd, then I might have seen the best film of the year. Instead the result is a collection of beautifully crafted dramatic scenes intercut with long and garish fantasy scenes that take the film nowhere and severley dimish the emotional impact. Obligatory snarky comments: Hey Peter, save some of those endings for the DVD. Oh, and Mark Wahlberg, your line reading and presence were just awful. Average
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Amreeka (2009) An immigrant solo mother and her teenage son move from occupied Palestine to Illinois in order to create a better life. The cultural conflict that arises will surprise no-one and what results is essentially a ‘through-the-eyes’ film expressing writer/director Cherien Dabis’s impressions of US/Arab race relations post 9/11. There’s a crowd-pleasing resolution that belies the tension that film works hard to create, but it’s still a compelling drama with honest emotions. Average
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Roman de gare (2007) A French drama and wannabe murder-mystery about a best-selling author and her ghost-writer. There is a lot of promise shown, but the tension that the film depends on is lost to a poor series of plot twists that are more smug than clever - and far from unpredictable. Average
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Up in the Air (2009) Jason Reitman follows up Juno with a film that is both deeper and more mature, and yet still retains the biting dialogue and humour we have come to expect of his productions. Coupled with Clooney at perhaps his best and Reitman’s ability to portray female characters as intelligent, we have one of the best films of the year. It’s a long way from perfect, but the way it taps into the social milieu makes it a must see of contemporary cinema. Essential
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Where the Wild Things Are (2009) Regular readers will know I’m generally not a fan of a) films with angry kids, and b) the fantasy genre. But Spike Jonze has succeeded here in capturing the wonderment of the world of a nine year old - and there are few directors working today who possess the imagination to pull this off. The melancholic tone and themes of escape may be a bit much for the younger audience, but I couldn’t have hoped for a better adaptation of Maurice Sendak’s book. Recommended
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The Blind Side (2009) Based on the true-life story of American football player Michael Oher and his progression from living on the street to college football fame. Sandra Bullock picks up her first Oscar nom for this role, and while her performance is a bit jarring in the early scenes, once the film settles in her performance is genuinely well acted. They story itself is as uplifting as you would expect (though not strictly adhereing to the real life events) and I found it refreshing to see a Hollywood film that promotes hard core Republican values in a positive manner. It’s these values and the way the film makes fun of prejudice that will likely turn a lot of people off, but for the rest it will be a fun heartwarming tale. Recommended
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Invictus (2009) Morgan Freeman is well cast in this hagiographic look at Nelson Mandela who engages with the Springbok captain (Matt Damon) over the course of the 1995 Rugby World Cup to inspire unity in the country. Clint Eastwood does a sound job with direction but the one-dimensional script and complete lack of tension makes for dull viewing. The subject matter would however make for a great documentary where the issue of life after apartheid and “that game” could properly be explored using the perspective of the players and team management. Average
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35 Rhums (35 Shots of Rum) (2008) French auteur Claire Denis presents a beautiful and simple film about the lives of four characters living in the outskirts of Paris. In true voyueristic style you see their ineractions which are not always in context, or full understood, but this just places more emphasis on the atmosphere and the unspoken moments. A bittersweet gem. Recommended
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The Limits of Control (2009) Critics may argue that Jim Jarmusch is out of ideas and has resorted to a self indulgent film stripped bare of dialogue and loaded with obscurity in an attempt to snare a little critical acclaim. Perhaps that’s what Ebert was suggesting when he awarded it half a star. Certainly compared to his last film, Broken Flowers, this offering appears to insist more on using whatever you bring to it. I was bringing a lot. The landscape and soundtrack alone make the journey more than worthwhile. Recommended
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The Men Who Stare at Goats (2009) This must have sounded great on paper - a funny and intelligent satire that isn’t too far from the truth. George Clooney playing an agent who is part of an experimental U.S. military unit trained in the use of psychic powers. And parts of it worked - mostly just the parts with goats unfortunately. Average
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Favourite Albums of 2009
2009 was a great year for discovering new music for me. I bought my fourth iPod, iTunes Genius improved on its accuracy to find gems from my library, and I took a six month break from work to mooch around home. So here are the albums I enjoyed the most - music for every mood:


Junior - Röyksopp
Hard to believe it’s been four years since The Understanding, but the wait has been worth it. The band have described the new album as having a “spring feel” - it’s energetic pace is as good as anything they have done. Guest spots from Robyn, Lykke Li, and The Knife’s Karin Dreijer.

Grace/Wastelands - Peter Doherty
Set aside the Pete Doherty you know from The Libertines and Babyshambles - this is the understated personal album of haunted melodies and simple expression that affirms him among the best songwriters of this generation.

Elvis Perkins In Dearland - Elvis Perkins In Dearland
It seems to me that this is the best folk-rock album from an American singer-songwriter that surfaced in 2009.

Este Mundo - Rupa & the April Fishes
Wildly diverse world music from a San Francisco based band who display influences from French chanson, Argentinean tango, Gypsy swing, American folk, Latin cumbias, and more.

Fever Ray - Fever Ray
The debut solo release from The Knife’s Karin Dreijer Andersson extends the enigmatic mood and dark beats she developed with her brother - though here there is minimalism and isolation.

Lungs - Florence And The Machine
When I think of the albums that became the soundtrack to my year, foremost will be this debut release from London based newcomers, led with energy and passion by Florence Welch.

Also worth a spin...

11:11 - Rodrigo y Gabriela
Hoodoo You Do - The Devil & Abbe May
Sun Gangs - The Veils
The XX - The XX
Mi Plan - Nelly Furtado
Or, The Whale - Or, The Whale
Music For Men - Gossip
Manners - Passion Pit
Luck - Wiretree
She Wolf - Shakira
Josephine - Magnolia Electric Co.
Two Suns - Bat For Lashes
Girls - Girls
Lightning Dust - Infinite Light
Holy Smoke - Gin Wigmore
Frankencottage EP - Dark Mean


See also: Favourite Albums of 2008
Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009) Wes Anderson’s love for the richness of details combined with Roald Dahl’s unique storytelling abilities are a winning match here. The lovable characters rendered in quirky stop-motion animation appear to have more life in them than anything blue you might see this year in 3D CGI. Anderson sticks with his regulars for the voice talent, and complements the lineup with George Clooney and Meryl Streep. Recommended
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Food Inc. (2008) Perhaps the most unfortunate after-effect of the Michael Moore era of mainstreaming the documentary has been the lack of serious unbiased debate about issues. The corporatisation of the food supply is a great target for discussion, but instead the filmmakers here attacked the subject with a scattershot collection of fears and anti-capitalist rhetoric without any rebuttal. So we end up with a film made by food radicals trying to push an idealist agenda which ultimately damages the credibility of the serious points that needed to be made. For better and more rational coverage check out King Corn made a year earlier. Avoid
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Io non ho paura (I’m Not Scared) (2003) Beautifully set in Southern Italy in the late seventies - a ten-year old discovers a small boy held captive in a hole near an abandoned farmhouse and gets drawn into helping him. It’s a well made coming-of-age thriller with a unique perspective, let down only slightly by a lacklustre ending and, on occasion, a little too much gratuitous imagery of the Italian countryside. Recommended
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How the West Was Won (1962) This ambitious Western epic, complete with four directors and an astounding ensemble cast of A-listers from the era, is one of the greatest visual spectacles of cinema history. The story itself is largely inconsequential to the experience, even some of the performances are not up to scratch (James Stewart is never convincing in this genre), but the overall accomplishment is timeless. One of only two dramatic feature films to have been produced using the three-strip panoramic Cinerama process. It has now been restored and had distortion adjustments made for viewing on a flat screen. Essential
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Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (2009) Fans of the first will likely be happy to get more of the same, albiet with a slightly more contrived storyline this time around. All the original cast are back and this time there is the added bonus of Amy Adams who plays Amelia Earhart - and is generally the highlight. It's an easy to watch family drama the plays it close to the well worn formula. Average
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Planet Terror (2007) Robert Rodriguez's zombie comedy/horror half of the Grindhouse double feature. Not as strong as the Tarantino directed contribution, but it works well as a tongue-in-cheek B-movie fantasy. Average
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La Mujer Sin Cabeza (The Headless Woman) (2008) Argentinian film in which a woman hits something with her car, then lapses into a form of amnesiac state. We follow her through an enigmatic dissociative journey and interactions with people. It's a beautifully crafted metaphysical abstract work unlike anything I have seen recently. Recommended
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